MARKET REVIEW · RATES · SEMIS · CRUDE · SEP 8–18, 2026

Out of the chips before the chips ripped

56 positions closed, 52% of them green. At 1.5% per position the window returned +0.74% against the Nasdaq-100’s +0.34% — and it got there through a 0.18% dip while the index went through 2.05%. Our SanDisk and Seagate legs came off on the 17th, the session before both names led a semiconductor rally.

Closed Positions

56

Win Rate

52%

Model Return · 1.5%

+0.74%

Nasdaq-100

+0.34%

1. What Moved The Tape

Two weeks that ran on two inputs: the ten-year and the barrel. On 11 September WTI rose 6.7% to $102.48 and Brent 5.9% to $107.63, the ten-year reached 4.95%, and the chip complex took it on the chin. Pricing for a 25 bp Fed increase moved to roughly 73% after the PPI print.

On 15 September the ten-year cleared 5.00% intraday — about 5.04% at the high, 4.995% at the close. Nvidia fell around 3.4%, the Nasdaq Composite about 0.8%. Microsoft rose in the same session. The index was not selling off. Its semiconductor half was.

On 16 September the FOMC raised the target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%. On 17 September the ten-year fell 7 bp to 4.93%, Brent eased, and the same names turned: Nvidia +2.54%, Microsoft +1.52%, Apple +1.38%, Alphabet +1.30%.

Then 18 September. A semiconductor rally carried the tape; Reuters put the Nasdaq Composite up 104.25 points, or 0.40%, at 26,522.55, with SanDisk and Seagate among the session’s biggest gainers. The ten-year closed at 4.997%, Brent settled at $103.87. Over the full week the Composite added 0.72% — a number that hides two violent sessions inside it.

2. Where The Money Actually Went

Deep_Dip went 6-for-6. Selective_Sniper went 4-for-4. Weekly_Pulse took 3 of 4. The dip-buying books are built for a tape that punishes a sector across several sessions and then takes it back in two. That is exactly the tape they got.

The trend side paid for it. Trend_Quality_Rebound closed 7 positions in the red on balance. Rotator went 0-for-2. The three Alltime_Shield books closed five positions and lost all five — a hedge-shaped book doing hedge-shaped work in a fortnight the rest of the portfolio finished up.

The semiconductor gains booked on 17 September, not the 18th. MU, SNDK twice on two separate books, NVDA, STX twice. So on the session when SanDisk and Seagate led the rally, the book’s SanDisk and Seagate positions were already cash. Whether that reads as discipline or as money left on the table is the same question either way: the exits fired on their own rules, a day before anyone could have known what the rules were about to miss.

Sovereign investor looking into the distance, representing strategic foresight in trading without the need to constantly monitor signals.

What We Held Into It.

Concentration: 14 named strategies closed something across the fortnight and no attributed book accounted for more than 7 of the 56 closes. Deep_Dip and Selective_Sniper contributed 10 positions between them and carried most of the window’s return — concentrated in outcome, not in exposure.

Rotation: STX closed four separate times in the session of 17 September, across four different strategies, in both directions. Peak_Reload and Deep_Dip took +3.21% each. Rotator stopped at −5.20% after 21 days, Panic_Reversal at −6.87% after 7. One ticker, one session, four independent mandates reaching four independent conclusions.

Discipline: The Alltime_Shield books went 0-for-5, and every one of those legs closed on 10 and 18 September — the two sessions where the rest of the book was being paid. Eight unattributed legs appear as unmapped rather than folded into a neighbouring strategy; the attribution gap is 8 of 56 closes and it is disclosed, not absorbed.

3. The Ledger

Two pictures of the same fortnight. The first sets the window against the index. The second is the shape of the 56 closes themselves — where the mass sits relative to break-even, which tail is long and which is short. The tables name the extremes.

The short version of both: a modest right tail did the work, the left tail is long and thin and cost very little, and the line got where it got without ever being far from flat.

Against the index

The 56 positions below return +49.39% when you simply add them up. That is not a portfolio return — it is the sum of 56 separate percentages, each earned on a fraction of capital. What the model actually returned over this window depends on position size, and position size is bounded by what Interactive Brokers will margin: across a book this strategy-rich, 5% per position is not executable. At 1.5% per position the window returned +0.74%; at 3% it returned +1.49%.

Over the same days the Nasdaq-100 returned +0.34%, and it got there through a low of −2.05% along the way — against −0.18% for the model line.

Both lines start at zero on 4 Sep, the last session before the window. The model line is realised return only — it moves when a position closes and stands still otherwise, so the unrealised swing in the 61 positions still open is not in it. The index line is marked to market every session. Over a fortnight that difference is material, which is why this is a realised-return chart and not a NAV curve.

Return distribution

Every one of the 56 closed positions is counted here, in 2-point buckets. Median close +1.34%, median hold 3 days. The two tables below name the 20 extremes; the remaining 36 sit in the middle of this shape.

Best 10

Date	Symbol	Strategy	Hold	Return
14 Sep	TRI	Selective_Sniper	4 d	+10.56%
17 Sep	MU	Weekly_Pulse	3 d	+7.89%
17 Sep	SNDK	Peak_Reload	3 d	+6.10%
11 Sep	PYPL	Peak_Reload	1 d	+5.23%
17 Sep	SNDK	Deep_Dip	3 d	+5.00%
14 Sep	PANW	Deep_Dip	12 d	+5.00%
14 Sep	WDAY	Deep_Dip	6 d	+5.00%
10 Sep	FTNT	Deep_Dip	8 d	+5.00%
14 Sep	WDAY	Selective_Sniper	4 d	+4.93%
14 Sep	WDAY	Trend_Quality_Rebound	6 d	+4.26%

Worst 10

Date	Symbol	Strategy	Hold	Return
10 Sep	DASH	Peak_Reload	6 d	−7.84%
17 Sep	STX	Panic_Reversal	7 d	−6.87%
11 Sep	INTU	Trend_Quality_Rebound	9 d	−6.23%
17 Sep	STX	Rotator	21 d	−5.20%
10 Sep	DASH	Trend_Quality_Rebound	6 d	−5.05%
15 Sep	WDC	Fast_Predator	4 d	−4.75%
8 Sep	DASH	Breakout_Hunter	1 d	−4.07%
10 Sep	HONA	Alltime_Shield_II	8 d	−2.78%
10 Sep	HONA	Alltime_Shield_I	8 d	−2.78%
8 Sep	MNST	Fast_Predator	6 d	−2.13%

4. What The Next Fortnight Is Made Of

Almost nothing scheduled. The next CPI release is 14 October and the next FOMC meeting 27–28 October — both outside the window. One print falls inside it: Micron on 30 September, announced by the company on 26 August.

That single date sits on the one complex that moved twice in ten sessions, and Micron is a name this book closed for +7.89% on 17 September. The book carries 61 open positions across 28 symbols in 12 strategies into a stretch with no macro calendar to hide behind. The dip-buying books that earned this fortnight need dips to buy; a quiet tape is the condition they have not been given yet. None of this is a forecast and none of it is a recommendation.

The Reality Check

"The exits fired on 17 September because their rules said so, not because anyone knew what the 18th would look like. That distinction is the entire product."

The Bottom Line

A fortnight that moved on rates and oil, and a book that made its money on the two sessions where the tape changed its mind. At 1.5% per position it returned +0.74%; the Nasdaq-100 returned +0.34% and spent the middle of the window more than two points underwater.

None of it was a call. Deep_Dip did not know the ten-year would fall 7 basis points on 17 September, and Alltime_Shield did not know it would be wrong five times running. Both did the same thing they do every fortnight, and the tape sorted them.

Stop reading a summed percentage as a portfolio return. Start reading the position size next to it, because that is the number that decides what the fortnight was actually worth.

Method Note

Trade figures are realised closes from our own broker record, covering 8 Sep to 18 Sep. Returns are per-position, not portfolio-weighted. The distribution counts every closed position; the tables name the extremes. Legs we could not attribute to a strategy are shown as unmapped rather than reassigned.
Macro figures are dated public reporting, each one checked against a named source before publication. Ordertune is a signal provider, not an investment adviser. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

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Strategy	Ordertune CoreEUR 129/mo excl. VAT	Ordertune AdvancedEUR 279/mo excl. VAT	Institutional AlphaEUR 489/mo excl. VAT
Peak ReloadLongMean Reversion	Included in Ordertune Core	Included in Ordertune Advanced	Included in Institutional Alpha
RotatorLongSwing	Included in Ordertune Core	Included in Ordertune Advanced	Included in Institutional Alpha
Selective SniperLongDeep Dip	Included in Ordertune Core	Included in Ordertune Advanced	Included in Institutional Alpha
Trend Quality ReboundLongMean Reversion	Included in Ordertune Core	Included in Ordertune Advanced	Included in Institutional Alpha
Weekly PulseLongSeasonality	Included in Ordertune Core	Included in Ordertune Advanced	Included in Institutional Alpha
Deep DipLongDeep Dip	Not included in Ordertune Core	Included in Ordertune Advanced	Included in Institutional Alpha
Intraday Liquidity HunterLongMean Reversion	Not included in Ordertune Core	Included in Ordertune Advanced	Included in Institutional Alpha
Panic ReversalLongSwing	Not included in Ordertune Core	Included in Ordertune Advanced	Included in Institutional Alpha
Precision Panic PredatorLongDeep Dip	Not included in Ordertune Core	Included in Ordertune Advanced	Included in Institutional Alpha
Selective CompounderLongSwing	Not included in Ordertune Core	Included in Ordertune Advanced	Included in Institutional Alpha
Alltime Shield IShortMomentum	Not included in Ordertune Core	Not included in Ordertune Advanced	Included in Institutional Alpha
Alltime Shield IIShortMomentum	Not included in Ordertune Core	Not included in Ordertune Advanced	Included in Institutional Alpha
Alltime Shield IIIShortMomentum	Not included in Ordertune Core	Not included in Ordertune Advanced	Included in Institutional Alpha
Alltime Shield IVShortMomentum	Not included in Ordertune Core	Not included in Ordertune Advanced	Included in Institutional Alpha
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Short BullrunShortMean Reversion	Not included in Ordertune Core	Not included in Ordertune Advanced	Included in Institutional Alpha
Tech CompounderLongMomentum	Not included in Ordertune Core	Not included in Ordertune Advanced	Included in Institutional Alpha
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